Social Security's 2027 COLA estimate is out as inflation cools
Early estimates for the 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) now sit around 3.8% as inflation eases, which would add roughly $74 a month to the average benefit if it holds.
Source: Yahoo Finance ·
A 3.8% COLA bump signals that the worst inflation shock has passed—meaning your retirement income assumptions may finally stabilize after years of volatile adjustments. If you're 10 years from retirement, this matters because Social Security's purchasing power is becoming more predictable again. The difference between a 2.8% raise (2026) and a 3.8% raise (2027) illustrates why locking in your full retirement age now beats guessing later. Worth checking whether your current retirement date accounts for Social Security as a meaningful income floor, rather than a bonus surprise.
- •Cooling inflation (3.5% year-over-year in June vs. 4.2% in May) is pulling down expectations for future COLA increases.[9]
- •The Senior Citizens League estimates a 3.8% COLA for 2027, about one percentage point higher than the 2.8% boost retirees received for 2026.[9][6]
- •A 3.8% COLA would increase the average Social Security check from about $1,938 to $2,011, roughly $74 more per month.[9]
Mid-career savers and current retirees can use the 2027 COLA range to better estimate future Social Security income and adjust retirement budgets for inflation.